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tutorial:redd_case_study [2013/07/30 01:38] juliana |
tutorial:redd_case_study [2013/08/14 20:04] (current) admin |
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* Convert gross rates into net rates | * Convert gross rates into net rates | ||
* How to develop a carbon bookkeeping model | * How to develop a carbon bookkeeping model | ||
- | * Functors: \\ [[:calc_neighborhood|Calc Neighborhood]]\\ [[:calc_spatial_lag|Calc Spatial Lag]]\\ | + | * Functors: \\ //[[:Calc Neighborhood]]//\\ //[[:calc_spatial_lag|Calc Spatial Lag]]//\\ |
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In this example, an econometric model is coupled to a spatially-explicit simulation model of deforestation. The econometric projection model predicts deforestation rates based on changes in the socioeconomic context of municipalities [[http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/publications/cap6.pdf|(Soares-Filho et. al, 2008]][[http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0913048107|,Soares-Filho et. al, 2010)]]. A spatial lag regression is applied to compute the influence of five variables on the deforestation trajectory: Crop area expansion, cattle herd growth, percent of protected areas, proximity to paved roads, and migration rates. A spatial neighborhood matrix allows the model to incorporate the influence of the socioeconomic context of neighboring municipalities in the prediction of deforestation rates within a certain municipality. | In this example, an econometric model is coupled to a spatially-explicit simulation model of deforestation. The econometric projection model predicts deforestation rates based on changes in the socioeconomic context of municipalities [[http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/publications/cap6.pdf|(Soares-Filho et. al, 2008]][[http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0913048107|,Soares-Filho et. al, 2010)]]. A spatial lag regression is applied to compute the influence of five variables on the deforestation trajectory: Crop area expansion, cattle herd growth, percent of protected areas, proximity to paved roads, and migration rates. A spatial neighborhood matrix allows the model to incorporate the influence of the socioeconomic context of neighboring municipalities in the prediction of deforestation rates within a certain municipality. | ||
- | Load the model “simulate_deforestation_under_socioeconomic_scenarios.xml” from \ Examples\REDD_case_study. This model is composed of three main parts: the input data, pre-calculation, and the simulation model itself. | + | Load the model ''simulate_deforestation_under_socioeconomic_scenarios.egoml'' from ''\Examples\REDD_case_study''. This model is composed of three main parts: the input data, pre-calculation, and the simulation model itself. |
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- | The pre-calculation group calculates the original forest extent per municipality, the municipality area, and the neighborhood matrix (//Calc neighborhood//) that defines which municipalities are neighbors. These are going to be inputs for the projection model. Open the group named “Econometric projection model”. | + | The pre-calculation group calculates the original forest extent per municipality, the municipality area, and the neighborhood matrix (//[[:Calc Neighborhood]]//) that defines which municipalities are neighbors. These are going to be inputs for the projection model. Open the [[:Group]] named “Econometric projection model”. |
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- | This Group contains three //For Each// and one //Calc Spatial Lag//. The two first //For Each// update the cattle herd and crop area lookup tables and calculate their annual rates of change, which are input to the spatial lag regression. | + | This //[[:Group]]// contains three //[[:For Each]]// and one //[[:Calc Spatial Lag]]//. The two first //[[:For Each]]// update the cattle herd and crop area lookup tables and calculate their annual rates of change, which are input to the spatial lag regression. |
- | <note tip>**TIP**: //For Each// browses the elements of a table allowing its manipulation.</note> | + | <note tip>**TIP**: //[[:For Each]]// browses the elements of a table allowing its manipulation.</note> |
- | In addition to the lookup tables of the five independent variables, //Calc Spatial Lag// receives as input the lag coefficient, the neighborhood matrix, an initial x1 dependent variable table, the regression coefficients, and a random error term. This functor represents a spatial lag regression equation as follows [[http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0160017602250972|(Anselin, 2002)]]: | + | In addition to the lookup tables of the five independent variables, //[[:Calc Spatial Lag]]// receives as input the lag coefficient, the neighborhood matrix, an initial x1 dependent variable table, the regression coefficients, and a random error term. This functor represents a spatial lag regression equation as follows [[http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0160017602250972|(Anselin, 2002)]]: |
y = pWy+XB+e | y = pWy+XB+e | ||
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- | Finally, the third //For Each// converts gross deforestation rates output from //Calc Spatial Lag// into net deforestation rates using the following formula: | + | Finally, the third //[[:For Each]]// converts gross deforestation rates output from //[[:Calc Spatial Lag]]// into net deforestation rates using the following formula: |
**if t1[v1] / t2[v1] > 1 then 1 else if t1[v1] / t2[v1] < 0 then 0 else t1[v1] / t2[v1]** | **if t1[v1] / t2[v1] > 1 then 1 else if t1[v1] / t2[v1] < 0 then 0 else t1[v1] / t2[v1]** | ||
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=== Developing a carbon bookkeeping model === | === Developing a carbon bookkeeping model === | ||
- | This model calculates annual carbon emissions by identifying annual deforestation and then overlaying these areas on a map of forest carbon biomass – figure below [[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01323.x|(Saatchi et al., 2007)]], and assuming that carbon content is 50% of wood biomass (Houghton et al., 2001) and that 85% of the carbon contained in trees is released to the atmosphere with deforestation [[http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/35002062|(Houghton et al., 2000)]]. | + | This model calculates annual carbon emissions by identifying annual deforestation and then overlaying these areas on a map of forest carbon biomass – figure below [[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01323.x|(Saatchi et al., 2007)]], and assuming that carbon content is 50% of wood biomass [[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2001.00426.x|(Houghton et al., 2001)]] and that 85% of the carbon contained in trees is released to the atmosphere with deforestation [[http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/35002062|(Houghton et al., 2000)]]. |
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- | In order to calculate annual deforestation, the model compares in each time step the current land-use map with the previous one. Dinamica EGO allows the loading of multiple maps using //Load Map// within //Repeat// and passing //Step// as a pointer to the name file that has the model step number as its suffix. Note that in this case the suffix has 6 digits to bear the simulation year (2002-2020). | + | In order to calculate annual deforestation, the model compares in each time step the current land-use map with the previous one. Dinamica EGO allows the loading of multiple maps using //[[:Load Map]]// within //[[:Repeat]]// and passing //[[:Step]]// as a pointer to the name file that has the model step number as its suffix. Note that in this case the suffix has 6 digits to bear the simulation year (2002-2020). |
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- | A //Load Map// is placed within a Group to ensure a proper order of execution. The previous land-use map is kept in// Mux Map//, so both //Calculate Map// functors in this container receive the previous land-use map as **i1** and the current as **i2**. | + | A //[[:Load Map]]// is placed within a //[[:Group]]// to ensure a proper order of execution. The previous land-use map is kept in //[[:Mux Map]]//, so both //[[:Calculate Map]]// functors in this container receive the previous land-use map as **i1** and the current as **i2**. |
{{ :tutorial:redd_10.1.jpg |}} | {{ :tutorial:redd_10.1.jpg |}} | ||
- | After annual deforestation cells are indentified, the model picks up the corresponding biomass stocks in the biomass map and convert them into carbon and then into emissions. //Extract Map Attribute// is applied to calculate the total amount of cells and //Calculate Value// integrates those figures on an annual basis. Its output is passed to Set Lookup Table that updates a table with annual carbon emissions (Fig. 3). | + | After annual deforestation cells are indentified, the model picks up the corresponding biomass stocks in the biomass map and convert them into carbon and then into emissions. //[[:Extract Map Attributes]]// is applied to calculate the total amount of cells and //[[:Calculate Value]]// integrates those figures on an annual basis. Its output is passed to //[[:Set Lookup Table Value]]// that updates a table with annual carbon emissions (Fig. 3). |
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