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tutorial:redd_case_study [2013/07/30 01:38]
juliana
tutorial:redd_case_study [2013/08/14 20:04] (current)
admin
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   * Convert gross rates into net rates   * Convert gross rates into net rates
   * How to develop a carbon bookkeeping model   * How to develop a carbon bookkeeping model
-  * Functors: \\  [[:calc_neighborhood|Calc Neighborhood]]\\ [[:​calc_spatial_lag|Calc Spatial Lag]]\\ ​+  * Functors: \\  ​//[[:Calc Neighborhood]]//\\ //[[:​calc_spatial_lag|Calc Spatial Lag]]//\\ 
  
  
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 In this example, an econometric model is coupled to a spatially-explicit simulation model of deforestation. The econometric projection model predicts deforestation rates based on changes in the socioeconomic context of municipalities [[http://​www.csr.ufmg.br/​dinamica/​publications/​cap6.pdf|(Soares-Filho et. al, 2008]][[http://​www.pnas.org/​cgi/​doi/​10.1073/​pnas.0913048107|,​Soares-Filho et. al, 2010)]]. A spatial lag regression is applied to compute the influence of five variables on the deforestation trajectory: ​ Crop area expansion, cattle herd growth, percent of protected areas, proximity to paved roads, and migration rates. A spatial neighborhood matrix allows the model to incorporate the influence of the socioeconomic context of neighboring municipalities in the prediction of deforestation rates within a certain municipality.  ​ In this example, an econometric model is coupled to a spatially-explicit simulation model of deforestation. The econometric projection model predicts deforestation rates based on changes in the socioeconomic context of municipalities [[http://​www.csr.ufmg.br/​dinamica/​publications/​cap6.pdf|(Soares-Filho et. al, 2008]][[http://​www.pnas.org/​cgi/​doi/​10.1073/​pnas.0913048107|,​Soares-Filho et. al, 2010)]]. A spatial lag regression is applied to compute the influence of five variables on the deforestation trajectory: ​ Crop area expansion, cattle herd growth, percent of protected areas, proximity to paved roads, and migration rates. A spatial neighborhood matrix allows the model to incorporate the influence of the socioeconomic context of neighboring municipalities in the prediction of deforestation rates within a certain municipality.  ​
  
-Load the model simulate_deforestation_under_socioeconomic_scenarios.xml” ​from \ Examples\REDD_case_study. This model is composed of three main parts: the input data, pre-calculation,​ and the simulation model itself. ​+Load the model ''​simulate_deforestation_under_socioeconomic_scenarios.egoml'' ​from ''​\Examples\REDD_case_study''​. This model is composed of three main parts: the input data, pre-calculation,​ and the simulation model itself. ​
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​redd_3.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​redd_3.jpg |}}
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 {{ :​tutorial:​redd_4.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​redd_4.jpg |}}
  
-The pre-calculation group calculates the original forest extent per municipality,​ the municipality area, and the neighborhood matrix (//​Calc ​neighborhood//) that defines which municipalities are neighbors. These are going to be inputs for the projection model. Open the group named “Econometric projection model”.+The pre-calculation group calculates the original forest extent per municipality,​ the municipality area, and the neighborhood matrix (//[[:Calc Neighborhood]]//) that defines which municipalities are neighbors. These are going to be inputs for the projection model. Open the [[:​Group]] ​named “Econometric projection model”.
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​redd_5.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​redd_5.jpg |}}
  
-This Group contains three //For Each// and one //Calc Spatial Lag//. The two first //For Each// update the cattle herd and crop area lookup tables and calculate their annual rates of change, which are input to the spatial lag regression. ​+This //[[:Group]]// contains three //[[:For Each]]// and one //[[:Calc Spatial Lag]]//. The two first //[[:For Each]]// update the cattle herd and crop area lookup tables and calculate their annual rates of change, which are input to the spatial lag regression. ​
  
-<note tip>​**TIP**:​ //For Each// browses the elements of a table allowing its manipulation.</​note> ​+<note tip>​**TIP**:​ //[[:For Each]]// browses the elements of a table allowing its manipulation.</​note> ​
  
-In addition to the lookup tables of the five independent variables, //Calc Spatial Lag// receives as input the lag coefficient,​ the neighborhood matrix, an initial x1 dependent variable table, the regression coefficients,​ and a random error term. This functor represents a spatial lag regression equation as follows [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1177/​0160017602250972|(Anselin,​ 2002)]]:+In addition to the lookup tables of the five independent variables, //[[:Calc Spatial Lag]]// receives as input the lag coefficient,​ the neighborhood matrix, an initial x1 dependent variable table, the regression coefficients,​ and a random error term. This functor represents a spatial lag regression equation as follows [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1177/​0160017602250972|(Anselin,​ 2002)]]:
  
 y = pWy+XB+e   ​ y = pWy+XB+e   ​
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 {{ :​tutorial:​redd_6.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​redd_6.jpg |}}
  
-Finally, the third //For Each// converts gross deforestation rates output from //Calc Spatial Lag// into net deforestation rates using the following formula:+Finally, the third //[[:For Each]]// converts gross deforestation rates output from //[[:Calc Spatial Lag]]// into net deforestation rates using the following formula:
  
 **if t1[v1] / t2[v1] > 1 then 1 else if t1[v1] / t2[v1] < 0 then 0 else  t1[v1] / t2[v1]** **if t1[v1] / t2[v1] > 1 then 1 else if t1[v1] / t2[v1] < 0 then 0 else  t1[v1] / t2[v1]**
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 === Developing a carbon bookkeeping model === === Developing a carbon bookkeeping model ===
  
-This model calculates annual carbon emissions by identifying annual deforestation and then overlaying these areas on a map of forest carbon biomass – figure below [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1365-2486.2007.01323.x|(Saatchi et al., 2007)]], and assuming that carbon content is 50% of wood biomass (Houghton et al., 2001) and that 85% of the carbon contained in trees is released to the atmosphere with deforestation [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1038/​35002062|(Houghton et al., 2000)]].+This model calculates annual carbon emissions by identifying annual deforestation and then overlaying these areas on a map of forest carbon biomass – figure below [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1365-2486.2007.01323.x|(Saatchi et al., 2007)]], and assuming that carbon content is 50% of wood biomass ​[[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1365-2486.2001.00426.x|(Houghton et al., 2001)]] and that 85% of the carbon contained in trees is released to the atmosphere with deforestation [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1038/​35002062|(Houghton et al., 2000)]].
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​redd_8.1.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​redd_8.1.jpg |}}
  
-In order to calculate annual deforestation,​ the model compares in each time step the current land-use map with the previous one. Dinamica EGO allows the loading of multiple maps using //Load Map// within //Repeat// and passing //Step// as a pointer to the name file that has the model step number as its suffix. Note that in this case the suffix has 6 digits to bear the simulation year (2002-2020).+In order to calculate annual deforestation,​ the model compares in each time step the current land-use map with the previous one. Dinamica EGO allows the loading of multiple maps using //[[:Load Map]]// within //[[:Repeat]]// and passing //[[:Step]]// as a pointer to the name file that has the model step number as its suffix. Note that in this case the suffix has 6 digits to bear the simulation year (2002-2020).
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​redd_9.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​redd_9.jpg |}}
  
-A //Load Map// is placed within a Group to ensure a proper order of execution. The previous land-use map is kept in// Mux Map//, so both //Calculate Map// functors in this container receive the previous land-use map as **i1** and the current as **i2**.+A //[[:Load Map]]// is placed within a //[[:Group]]// to ensure a proper order of execution. The previous land-use map is kept in //[[:Mux Map]]//, so both //[[:Calculate Map]]// functors in this container receive the previous land-use map as **i1** and the current as **i2**.
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​redd_10.1.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​redd_10.1.jpg |}}
  
-After annual deforestation cells are indentified,​ the model picks up the corresponding biomass stocks in the biomass map and convert them into carbon and then into emissions. //Extract Map Attribute// is applied to calculate the total amount of cells and //Calculate Value// integrates those figures on an annual basis. Its output is passed to Set Lookup Table that updates a table with annual carbon emissions (Fig. 3).+After annual deforestation cells are indentified,​ the model picks up the corresponding biomass stocks in the biomass map and convert them into carbon and then into emissions. //[[:Extract Map Attributes]]// is applied to calculate the total amount of cells and //[[:Calculate Value]]// integrates those figures on an annual basis. Its output is passed to //[[:Set Lookup Table Value]]// ​that updates a table with annual carbon emissions (Fig. 3).
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​redd_11.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​redd_11.jpg |}}