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lesson_18 [2020/02/15 21:12]
britaldo
lesson_18 [2020/02/20 16:16]
pedrog
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 ==== Seventh step: Validating simulation using multiple windows and constant decay function ==== ==== Seventh step: Validating simulation using multiple windows and constant decay function ====
  
-Open the model ''​determine-muti-window-similarity-of-differences_complete.egoml''​ in folder ''​\7_validate_using_multiple_windows_constant_decay_function''​.+Open the model ''​determine-muti-window-similarity-of-differences_complete.egoml''​ in folder ''​\Guidebook_Dinamica_5\Models\LUCC_model\7_validate_using_multiple_windows_constant_decay_function''​.
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​lucc_40.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​lucc_40.jpg |}}
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 [{{ :​tutorial:​lucc_57.jpg |Fig.7 Transition probabilities transformed to simulate expansion process.}}] ​ [{{ :​tutorial:​lucc_57.jpg |Fig.7 Transition probabilities transformed to simulate expansion process.}}] ​
  
-Now, open the model ''​simulate_deforestation_from_1997_2000_with_patch_formation_and_expansion.egoml''​ in the folder ''​Examples\setup_run_and_validate _a_lucc_model\9_run_lucc_with_patch_formation_and_expansion''​. ​    +Now, open the model ''​simulate_deforestation_from_1997_2000_with_patch_formation_and_expansion.egoml''​ in the folder ''​\Guidebook_Dinamica_5\Models\LUCC_model\9_run_lucc_with_patch_formation_and_expansion''​. ​    
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​lucc_60.1.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​lucc_60.1.jpg |}}
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 Thus, as the current example, we can apply the simulation model to assess the impacts of future trajectories of deforestation under various socioeconomic and public policies scenarios, on the emission of greenhouse gases [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1038/​nature04389|(Soares-Filho et al., 2006)]], regional climate change [[ftp://​cola.gmu.edu/​pub/​ctr/​ctr_226.pdf|(Schneider et al., 2006]]; [[http://​se-server.ethz.ch/​staff/​af/​fi159/​S/​Sa123.pdf|Sampaio et al, 2007)]], fluvial regime [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​S0022-1694(03)00267-1|(Costa et al, 2003]][[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​j.jhydrol.2009.02.043|,​Coe et al, 2009)]], habitat loss and fragmentation[[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1038/​nature04389|(Soares-Filho et al., 2006,]] [[ http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​j.foreco.2008.10.011|Texeira et al., 2009)]] as well as the loss of the forest environmental services and economic goods [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​S0921-8009(96)00066-3|(Fearnside,​ 1997)]]. ​ Thus, as the current example, we can apply the simulation model to assess the impacts of future trajectories of deforestation under various socioeconomic and public policies scenarios, on the emission of greenhouse gases [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1038/​nature04389|(Soares-Filho et al., 2006)]], regional climate change [[ftp://​cola.gmu.edu/​pub/​ctr/​ctr_226.pdf|(Schneider et al., 2006]]; [[http://​se-server.ethz.ch/​staff/​af/​fi159/​S/​Sa123.pdf|Sampaio et al, 2007)]], fluvial regime [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​S0022-1694(03)00267-1|(Costa et al, 2003]][[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​j.jhydrol.2009.02.043|,​Coe et al, 2009)]], habitat loss and fragmentation[[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1038/​nature04389|(Soares-Filho et al., 2006,]] [[ http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​j.foreco.2008.10.011|Texeira et al., 2009)]] as well as the loss of the forest environmental services and economic goods [[http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​S0921-8009(96)00066-3|(Fearnside,​ 1997)]]. ​
  
-Open the model simulate_deforestation_from_1997_2000_30years_ahead.xml available in ''​Examples\setup_run_and_validate_a_lucc_model\10_run_deforestation_trajectories''​.+Open the model simulate_deforestation_from_1997_2000_30years_ahead.xml available in ''​\Guidebook_Dinamica_5\Models\LUCC_model\10_run_deforestation_trajectories''​.
  
 {{ :​tutorial:​lucc_68.jpg |}} {{ :​tutorial:​lucc_68.jpg |}}
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 You may want to improve this model by incorporating dynamic rates, other dynamic variables, submodels, such as the road constructor,​ and feedbacks from the landscape attributes to the transition rate calculation. All of these are possible in Dinamica EGO. An example of road constructor module is found in the model mato_grosso_road.xml in ''​Examples\run_lucc_northern_mato_grosso\run_roads_with_comments''​. Also, Dinamica EGO allows the incorporation of economic, social and political scenarios into a model that integrates the effect of  these underlying causes [[http://​www.eldis.org/​go/​topics&​id=14501&​type=Document#​.Ufba_421EZ4|(Geist,​ & Lambin, 2001)]] on the trajectory of deforestation (usually these variables are input to the model using tables with keys assigned to a geographic unit, such as county, state or country).  ​ You may want to improve this model by incorporating dynamic rates, other dynamic variables, submodels, such as the road constructor,​ and feedbacks from the landscape attributes to the transition rate calculation. All of these are possible in Dinamica EGO. An example of road constructor module is found in the model mato_grosso_road.xml in ''​Examples\run_lucc_northern_mato_grosso\run_roads_with_comments''​. Also, Dinamica EGO allows the incorporation of economic, social and political scenarios into a model that integrates the effect of  these underlying causes [[http://​www.eldis.org/​go/​topics&​id=14501&​type=Document#​.Ufba_421EZ4|(Geist,​ & Lambin, 2001)]] on the trajectory of deforestation (usually these variables are input to the model using tables with keys assigned to a geographic unit, such as county, state or country).  ​
  
-Congratulations,​ you have successfully completed this lesson! ​Now let’s move to the **next lesson:​** ​[[lesson_19|LESSON 19The wizard editor in Dinamica EGO]]+\\ 
 +\\ 
 +===Congratulations,​ you have successfully completed this lesson!=== 
 +\\ 
 +[[lesson_19|Next Lesson]] 
 +\\ 
 +☞[[:guidebook_start| Back to Guidebook Start]]