Basic questions to Modeling Environmental Dynamics

Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. This lesson introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals.

What are models?

Simple representations of realty according to a specific vision

What are Spatially explicit models?

Spatially explicit models simulate the dynamics of an environmental system, reproducing the way its spatial patterns evolve, to project the probable ecological and socioeconomic consequences from the system dynamics.

Discrete and Continuous Maps - What's the Difference?

Discrete map contains finite values that have nothing in-between. So, in other words discrete map refers to the type of map that contain quantitative data that relies on counts. It contains only finite values, whose subdivision is not possible. It includes only those values that can only be counted in whole numbers or integers and are separate which means the data cannot be broken down into fraction or decimal.

Continuous map is described as a map unbroken set of observations; that can be measured on a scale. It can take any numeric value, within a finite or infinite range of possible value. Statistically, range refers to the difference between highest and lowest observation. The continuous data can be broken down into fractions and decimal, i.e. it can be meaningfully subdivided into smaller parts according to the measurement precision.

Hence, Discrete map expects a certain number data of isolated values. In contrast to continuous map, which expects any value from a given range (without any breaks), and is related to physical measurement.

What are the ways of representing data? Raster and Vector Data - What's the Difference?

Vector Data is a representation of the world using points, lines, and polygons. These data are created by digitizing the base data. They store information in x, y coordinates. Vectors models are used to store data, which have discrete boundaries like country borders, land parcels and roads. Vector models are useful for storing data that has discrete boundaries, such as country borders, land parcels, and streets.

Raster Data stores information of features in cell-based manner. Satellite images, photogrammetry and scanned maps are all raster-based data. Raster models are used to store data, which varies continuously as in aerial photography, a satellite image or elevation values. A raster consists of a matrix of cells (or pixels) organized into rows and columns.

Why model land change?

Land Change Models support science and decision making

Predict and project (What if we choose policy A or B?)

Explain and learn (What are some potential unintended consequences of choosing policy A?)